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About:
The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease
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schema:ScholarlyArticle
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wasabi.inria.fr
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Type:
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title
The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease
Creator
De Luca, Gabriele
De Natale, Dario
De Natale, Giuseppe
Ferragamo, Antonio
Marchitelli, Vito
Meglio, Giovanni
Piccolo, Andrea
Ricciardi, Valerio
Scala, Antonio
Somma, Renato
Spina, Emanuele
Troise, Claudia
Source
Medline; PMC
abstract
We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, which became particularly invasive in Italy in March 2020. We show that the high apparent lethality or case fatality ratio (CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of the number of infection cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the lethality of COVID-19, we use the actual (March 2020) estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of the pandemic based on the minimum observed CFR and analyze data obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a good representation of a “laboratory” case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses, we derive more realistic estimates of the real extent of the infection as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then isolate the dominant factors causing the abnormal severity of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the death count—the only data estimated to be reliable enough—to predict the total number of people infected and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could end.
has issue date
2020-05-21
(
xsd:dateTime
)
bibo:doi
10.3390/jcm9051564
bibo:pmid
32455807
has license
cc-by
sha1sum (hex)
9ef6fcc15caf2f8efac313693e45f74bfcaf7863
schema:url
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9051564
resource representing a document's title
The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease
has PubMed Central identifier
PMC7291160
has PubMed identifier
32455807
schema:publication
J Clin Med
resource representing a document's body
covid:9ef6fcc15caf2f8efac313693e45f74bfcaf7863#body_text
is
schema:about
of
named entity 'time'
named entity 'data'
named entity 'real'
named entity 'accurate'
named entity 'dominant'
named entity 'predict'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'isolate'
named entity 'pandemic'
named entity 'apparent'
named entity 'propagates'
named entity 'observed'
named entity 'cruise ship'
named entity 'investigate'
named entity 'March 2020'
named entity 'March 2020'
named entity 'case fatality ratio'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'Coronavirus Disease'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'semi-logarithmic'
named entity 'Italian National Institute of Health'
named entity 'Italian'
named entity 'positive test'
named entity 'pulmonary disease'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'orders of magnitude'
named entity 'Italian'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'Emilia-Romagna'
named entity 'Lombardia'
named entity '90,000'
named entity 'Lombardia'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'people who died'
named entity 'evolution'
named entity '5.7%'
named entity 'Yokohama'
named entity 'Protezione Civile'
named entity 'Calabria'
named entity 'antibiotic'
named entity 'lockdown of Italy'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'sampling'
named entity 'Italian Civil Protection'
named entity 'Italian'
named entity 'antibiotic-resistant bacteria'
named entity 'epidemic spread'
named entity 'genome'
named entity 'France'
named entity 'intensive care units'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'Calabria'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'COVID'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'reported in Italy'
named entity 'Diamond Princess'
named entity 'goodness-of-fit'
named entity 'Germany'
named entity 'ICUs'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'logistic function'
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