About: CoViD-19 Epidemic in India and Projections: Is Relief in Sight?

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	CoViD-19 Epidemic in India and Projections: Is Relief in Sight?
Creator	Indrayan, Abhaya Shukla, Shubham
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Projection of cases and deaths in an epidemic such as CoViD-19 is hazardous and the early projections were way-off the actual pattern. However, we now have actual data for more than 50 consecutive days in India that can be effectively used for projection. Methods: We closely track the trend and use the same pattern for projection. We call this Empirical Model. We also fit a Theoretical Model based on a Gamma function on the pattern of some of the previous epidemics. Results: The Empirical Model predicts the peak around the fourth week of May and the near end of the epidemic by the end of June 2020. The maximum number of active cases is likely to be nearly 75,000 during the second week of June. This would mean a peak demand of nearly 15,000 beds and nearly 4000 ventilators. The case-fatality based on those who have reached an outcome was nearly 10% in the first week of May and is likely to remain at this level for some time. Theoretical Model projected a peak of nearly 2500 new cases per day in the second week of May that seems to have been already breached. This model predicts the near end of the epidemic by the middle of July 2020.
has issue date	2020-05-13(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.08.20096008
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	9fbb2075bbed04fdb42b9c5d69af696e0e55967f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.08.20096008
resource representing a document's title	CoViD-19 Epidemic in India and Projections: Is Relief in Sight?
resource representing a document's body	covid:9fbb2075bbed04fdb42b9c5d69af696e0e55967f#body_text
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