About: The timing of contact restrictions and pro-active testing balances the socio-economic impact of a lockdown with the control of infections

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About: The timing of contact restrictions and pro-active testing balances the socio-economic impact of a lockdown with the control of infections Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	The timing of contact restrictions and pro-active testing balances the socio-economic impact of a lockdown with the control of infections
Creator	Wolkenhauer, Olaf Bej, Saptarshi
source	MedRxiv
abstract	During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, numerous mathematical models have been developed. Reporting artefacts and missing data about asymptomatic spreaders, imply considerable margins of uncertainty for model-based predictions. Epidemiological models can however also be used to investigate the consequences of measures to control the pandemic, reflected in changes to parameter values. We present a SIR-based, SUIR model in which the influence of testing and a reduction of contacts is studied by distinguishing 'Unidentified' and 'Identified' spreaders of infections. The model uses four ordinary differential equations and is kept deliberately simple to investigate general patterns occurring from testing and contact restrictions. The model goes beyond other efforts, by introducing time dependent parameter curves that represent different strategies in controlling the pandemic. Our analysis reveals the effect of 'pro-active' testing for the design of contact restriction measures. By pro-active testing we mean testing beyond those people who show symptoms. The simulations can explain why the timing of contract restrictions and pro-active testing is important. The model can also be used to study the consequence of different strategies to exit from lockdown. Our SUIR model is implemented in Python and is made available through a Juypter Notebooks. This an extensive documentation of the derivation and implementation of the model, as well as transparent and reproducible simulation studies. Our model should contribute to a better understanding of the role of testing and contact restrictions.
has issue date	2020-05-13(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.08.20095596
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a0fcfb19e7f26cdf4d45e7c93b4b5c7eff727992
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.08.20095596
resource representing a document's title	The timing of contact restrictions and pro-active testing balances the socio-economic impact of a lockdown with the control of infections
resource representing a document's body	covid:a0fcfb19e7f26cdf4d45e7c93b4b5c7eff727992#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'predictions' named entity 'control' named entity 'MARGINS' named entity 'measures' named entity 'pandemic' »more»

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