About: Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018

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About: Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2019 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2019
Creator	Worden, Lee Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile Selo, Bernice Sinai, Cyrus Mossoko, Mathias Hoff, Nicole Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Jean Jones, James Kelly, J Lietman, Thomas Porco, Travis Richardson, Eugene Rimoin, Anne Rutherford, George Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve Mbala-Kingebeni, Placide Amezcua, Eduardo Wannier, S
source	Medline; PMC
abstract	INTRODUCTION: As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak. METHODS: We collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018–2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks. RESULTS: As of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013–2016 West African outbreak. CONCLUSION: The difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak.
has issue date	2019-07-26(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100353
bibo:pmid	31378584
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	a3596e80ffe94a2b64072904b91a13787861d227
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100353
resource representing a document's title	Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2019
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7363034
has PubMed identifier	31378584
schema:publication	Epidemics
resource representing a document's body	covid:a3596e80ffe94a2b64072904b91a13787861d227#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'temporal' named entity 'Congo' named entity 'LARGEST' named entity 'VIOLENT' named entity 'SECOND' named entity 'INCREASE' named entity 'ZONE' named entity 'CURRENT' named entity 'counts' named entity 'Ebola virus disease (EVD)' named entity 'EVD' named entity 'EVD' named entity 'EVD' named entity 'Ebola virus disease' named entity 'EVD' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'Africa' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'mixing parameters' named entity 'exponential decay' named entity 'West African outbreak' named entity '2013-2016' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'infectious disease outbreaks' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'follow-up' named entity '0.01' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'rapid diagnostic tests' named entity 'Democratic Republic of the Congo' named entity 'public health' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'symptom' named entity '2013-2016' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'EVD' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'West African outbreak' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'post-mortem' named entity 'case report' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'polio' named entity 'healthcare workers' named entity '21 days' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'Africa' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'Statistical Computing' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'Confidence intervals' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Ebola haemorrhagic fever' named entity 'statistically significant' named entity 'Katwa' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'case report'

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