About: The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets

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About: The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets
Creator	Guan, Yi Riley, Steven Zhu, Huachen Pinsent, Amy White, Michael Pepin, Kim
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	Multiple subtypes of avian influenza (AI) and novel reassortants are frequently isolated from live bird markets (LBMs). However, our understanding of the drivers of persistence of multiple AI subtypes is limited. We propose a stochastic model of AI transmission within an LBM that incorporates market size, turnover rate and the balance of direct versus environmental transmissibility. We investigate the relationship between these factors and the critical community size (CCS) for the persistence of single and multiple AI strains within an LBM. We fit different models of seeding from farms to two-strain surveillance data collected from Shantou, China. For a single strain and plausible estimates for continuous turnover rates and transmissibility, the CCS was approximately 11 800 birds, only a 4.2% increase in this estimate was needed to ensure persistence of the co-infecting strains (two strains in a single host). Precise values of CCS estimates were sensitive to changes in market turnover rate and duration of the latent period. Assuming a gradual daily sell rate of birds the estimated CCS was higher than when an instantaneous selling rate was assumed. We were able to reproduce prevalence dynamics similar to observations from a single market in China with infection seeded every 5–15 days, and a maximum non-seeding duration of 80 days. Our findings suggest that persistence of co-infections is more likely to be owing to sequential infection of single strains rather than ongoing transmission of both strains concurrently. In any given system for a fixed set of ecological and epidemiological conditions, there is an LBM size below which the risk of sustained co-circulation is low and which may suggest a clear policy opportunity to reduce the frequency of influenza co-infection in poultry.
has issue date	2017-12-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1098/rspb.2017.0715
bibo:pmid	29212718
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	a7f47a771ace5d75afbd36064bb1a843f9821f83
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0715
resource representing a document's title	The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC5740266
has PubMed identifier	29212718
schema:publication	Proc Biol Sci
resource representing a document's body	covid:a7f47a771ace5d75afbd36064bb1a843f9821f83#body_text
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