About: Early Mandated Social Distancing is a Strong Predictor of Reduction in Highest Number of New COVID-19 cases per Day within Various Geographic Regions

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About: Early Mandated Social Distancing is a Strong Predictor of Reduction in Highest Number of New COVID-19 cases per Day within Various Geographic Regions Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Early Mandated Social Distancing is a Strong Predictor of Reduction in Highest Number of New COVID-19 cases per Day within Various Geographic Regions
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Mandated social distancing has been globally applied to limit the spread of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from highly pathogenic severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) -associated coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The benefit of this community-based intervention in limiting COVID-19 has not been proven nor quantified. We examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 in 119 geographic regions derived from 41 states within United States and 78 countries. We found that highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (Beta;=0.66, p<0.0001). Our findings suggest that the initiation of mandated social distancing for each doubling in number of existing COVID-19 cases would result in eventual peak with 58% higher number of COVID-19 infections per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day have peaked increased Beta to .85 (p<0.0001). We demonstrate that initiating mandated social distancing at a 10 times smaller number of COVID-19 cases will reduce the number of daily new COVID-19 cases at peak by 80% highlighting the importance of this community-based intervention.
has issue date	2020-05-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.07.20094607
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	aaf7c7c9387f81c4d5678aa77b764b0a84ce96ca
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.07.20094607
resource representing a document's title	Early Mandated Social Distancing is a Strong Predictor of Reduction in Highest Number of New COVID-19 cases per Day within Various Geographic Regions
resource representing a document's body	covid:aaf7c7c9387f81c4d5678aa77b764b0a84ce96ca#body_text
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is part of of	Mandated social distancing has been globally applied to limit the spread of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from highly pathogenic severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) -associated coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The benefit of this community-based intervention in limiting COVID-19 has not been proven nor quantified. We examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 in 119 geographic regions derived from 41 states within United States and 78 countries. We found that highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (Beta;=0.66, p<0.0001). Our findings suggest that the initiation of mandated social distancing for each doubling in number of existing COVID-19 cases would result in eventual peak with 58% higher number of COVID-19 infections per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day have peaked increased Beta to .85 (p<0.0001). We demonstrate that initiating mandated social distancing at a 10 times smaller number of COVID-19 cases will reduce the number of daily new COVID-19 cases at peak by 80% highlighting the importance of this community-based intervention. Early Mandated Social Distancing is a Strong Predictor of Reduction in Highest Number of New COVID-19 cases per Day within Various Geographic Regions covid:aaf7c7c9387f81c4d5678aa77b764b0a84ce96ca#body_text

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