About: Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
Creator	Colizza, Vittoria Barrat, Alain Vespignani, Alessandro Valleron, Alain-Jacques Barthelemy, Marc
source	ArXiv
abstract	We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.
has issue date	2007-01-24(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	adae39fea7d473e279cfffb02a95617e2bd5d65c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013
resource representing a document's title	Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
resource representing a document's body	covid:adae39fea7d473e279cfffb02a95617e2bd5d65c#body_text
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