About: Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers

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About: Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers
Creator	Jombart, Thibaut Liu, Yang Endo, Akira Funk, Sebastian Klepac, Petra Kucharski, Adam Abbott, Sam Davies, Nicholas Diamond, Charlie Gibbs, Hamish Gimma, Amy Hellewell, Joel Jit, Mark Sun, Fiona Prem, Kiesha Simons, David Clifford, Samuel Hué, Stéphane Atkins, Katherine Bosse, Nikos Brady, Oliver Eggo, Rosalind Jarvis, Christopher Lowe, Rachel Medley, Graham Munday, James O'reilly, Kathleen Pearson, Carl Quilty, Billy Rudge, James Russell, Timothy Tully, Damien Van Zandvoort, Kevin Covid-19, Cmmid Group, Working Abbas, Kaja Auzenbergs, Megan Deol, Arminder Emery, Jon Houben, Rein Leclerc, Quentin Nightingale, Emily Procter, Simon Chan, Yung-Wai Edmunds^, W Flasche^, Stefan Foss, Anna Gore-Langton, Georgia Julian Villabona-Arenas, C Knight, Gwenan Meakin, Sophie Quaife, Matthew Sherratt, Katharine
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks from international travellers, many countries currently use a combination of up to 14 days of self-quarantine on arrival and testing for active infection. We used a simulation model of air travellers arriving to the UK from the EU or the USA and the timing of their stages of infection to evaluate the ability of these strategies to reduce the risk of seeding community transmission. We find that a quarantine period of 8 days on arrival with a PCR test on day 7 (with a 1-day delay for test results) can reduce the number of infectious arrivals released into the community by a median 94% compared to a no quarantine, no test scenario. This reduction is similar to that achieved by a 14-day quarantine period (median 99% reduction). Shorter quarantine periods still can prevent a substantial amount of transmission; all strategies in which travellers spend at least 5 days (the mean incubation period) in quarantine and have at least one negative test before release are highly effective (e.g. a test on day 5 with release on day 6 results in a median 88% reduction in transmission potential). Without intervention, the current high prevalence in the US (40 per 10,000) results in a higher expected number of infectious arrivals per week (up to 23) compared to the EU (up to 12), despite an estimated 8 times lower volume of travel in July 2020. Requiring a 14-day quarantine period likely results in less than 1 infectious traveller each entering the UK per week from the EU and the USA (97.5th percentile). We also find that on arrival the transmission risk is highest from pre-symptomatic travellers; quarantine policies will shift this risk increasingly towards asymptomatic infections if eventually-symptomatic individuals self-isolate after the onset of symptoms. As passenger numbers recover, strategies to reduce the risk of re-introduction should be evaluated in the context of domestic SARS-CoV-2 incidence, preparedness to manage new outbreaks, and the economic and psychological impacts of quarantine.
has issue date	2020-07-24(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	aeae83b3fc5c07dddb48347e3e835e574e9282a5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281
resource representing a document's title	Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers
resource representing a document's body	covid:aeae83b3fc5c07dddb48347e3e835e574e9282a5#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'reduce' named entity 'risk' named entity 'USA' named entity 'ability' named entity 'MITIGATE' named entity 'USED' named entity 'INTERNATIONAL' named entity 'SIMULATION MODEL' named entity 'ARRIVAL' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'evaluate' named entity 'infection' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'Asymptomatic infections' named entity 'CC-BY 4.0 International license' named entity 'RNA' named entity 'dark bar' named entity 'dark bar' named entity 'PCR testing' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'preprint' named entity '0.01' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'latent period' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'PCR testing' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'PCR testing' named entity 'self-isolation'

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