About: Optimizing the COVID-19 Intervention Policy in Scotland and the Case for Testing and Tracing

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Optimizing the COVID-19 Intervention Policy in Scotland and the Case for Testing and Tracing
Creator	Grothey, Andreas Mckinnon, Ken
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Unlike other European countries the UK has abandoned widespread testing and tracing of known SARS-CoV-2 carriers in mid-March. The reason given was that the pandemic was out of control and with wide community based spread it would not be possible to contain it by tracing any longer. Like other countries the UK has since relied on a lockdown as the main measure to contain the virus (or more precisely the reproduction number R at significant economic and social cost. It is clear that this level of lockdown cannot be sustained until a vaccine is available, yet it is not clear what an exit strategy would look like that avoids the danger of a second (or subsequent waves). In this paper we argue that, when used within a portfolio of intervention strategies, widespread testing and tracing leads to significant cost savings compared to using lockdown measures alone. While the effect is most pronounced if a large proportion of the infectious population can be identified and their contacts traced, under reasonable assumptions there are still significant savings even if the fraction of infectious people found by tracing is small. We also present a policy optimization model that finds, for given assumptions on the disease parameters, the best intervention strategy to contain the virus by varying the degree of tracing and lockdown measure (and vaccination once that option is available) over time. We run the model on data fitted to the published COVID-19 outbreak figures for Scotland. The model suggests an intervention strategy that keeps the number of COVID-19 deaths low using a combination of tracing and lockdown. This strategy would only require lockdown measures equivalent to a reduction of R to about 1.8--2.0 if lockdown was used alone, at acceptable economic cost, while the model finds no such strategy without tracing enabled.
has issue date	2020-06-12(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.11.20128173
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	b002273cceb8a87fbb7fefc588b06727cc2a51f7
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128173
resource representing a document's title	Optimizing the COVID-19 Intervention Policy in Scotland and the Case for Testing and Tracing
resource representing a document's body	covid:b002273cceb8a87fbb7fefc588b06727cc2a51f7#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'CASE' named entity 'SCOTLAND' named entity 'TO CONTAIN' named entity 'SUBSEQUENT' named entity 'VIRUS' named entity 'DANGER' named entity 'SECOND' named entity 'CLEAR' named entity 'LOOK' named entity 'STRATEGY' named entity 'TESTING' named entity 'ECONOMIC' named entity 'SOCIAL' named entity 'LIKE' named entity 'VACCINE' named entity 'REASON' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'Linux' named entity 'Scottish Government' named entity 'death rates' named entity 'untraceable' named entity 'vaccination' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'NICE' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'QALY' named entity 'National Institute for Health and Care Excellence' named entity 'Scotland' named entity '1.6' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'point in time' named entity 'precisely' named entity 'European' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'QALY' named entity 'Scotland' named entity 'virus' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'optimization problem' named entity 'virus' named entity 'spread of the disease' named entity 'initial infection' named entity 'incubation' named entity 'Scotland' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'point in time' named entity 'basic reproduction number' named entity 'GDP' named entity 'social cost' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'social cost' named entity 'exit strategy' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'virus' named entity 'SCOTLAND' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Asian' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'QALY' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'icu' named entity 'virus' named entity 'herd immunity strategy' named entity 'vaccination' named entity 'vaccine' named entity 'evolution' named entity 'virus' named entity 'reproduction rate' named entity 'infection rate' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'virus' named entity 'trade-off' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'spreading the virus' named entity 'icu' named entity 'herd immunity strategy' named entity 'Scotland' named entity '2.0' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'virus'

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