About: Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic

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About: Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic
Creator	Rezza, Giovanni Stefanelli, Paola Bella, Antonino Riccardo, Flavia Puzelli, Simona Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano Poletti, Piero Scognamiglio, Paola Castrucci, Maria Chironna, Maria Cereda, Danilo Guzzetta, Giorgio Marziano, Valentina Trentini, Filippo Bellino, Stefania Boros, Stefano Brusaferro, Silvio Ciervo, Alessandra Fabiani, Massimo Gallo, Tolinda Pezzotti, Patrizio Piccioli, Andrea Punzo, Ornella Andrianou, Xanthi Balocchini, Emanuela Benetollo, P Bolzano, P D'aosta, Valle Filia, Antonietta Filippo, ; Giannitelli, Stefania Palmas, Sardegna Pier, Paolo Re, Da Rota, Maria Ruffier, Mauro Scondotto, Salvatore Siddu, Andrea Tallon, Marco Tiberti, Maria Tosti, Anna Trento, Donatella Alberto, ; Benedetto, Corrado, Di De Martino, Angela Dstat, Martina Facchini, Marzia Fiacchini, Daniel Mancini, Fabiola Manso, Massimiliani, Erika Paolo D'ancona, Fortunato Sforza, Francesco Sticchi, Camilla Urdiales, Mateo Venezia, Friuli Zuccaro, Maria
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background In February 2020, a locally-acquired COVID-19 case was detected in Lombardia, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The outbreak rapidly escalated to a national level epidemic, amid the WHO declaration of a pandemic. Methods We analysed data from the national case-based integrated surveillance system of all RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infections as of March 24th 2020, collected from all Italian regions and autonomous provinces. Here we provide a descriptive epidemiological summary on the first 62,843 COVID-19 cases in Italy as well as estimates of the basic and net reproductive numbers by region. Findings Of the 62,843 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 71.6% were reported from three Regions (Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna). All cases reported after February 20th were locally acquired. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.5 (95%CI: 2.18-2.83) in Toscana and 3 (95%CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio, with epidemic doubling time of 3.2 days (95%CI: 2.3-5.2) and 2.9 days (95%CI: 2.2-4.3), respectively. The net reproduction number showed a decreasing trend starting around February 20-25, 2020 in northern regions. Notably, 5,760 cases were reported among health care workers. Of the 5,541 reported COVID-19 associated deaths, 49% occurred in people aged 80 years or above with an overall crude CFR of 8.8%. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Interpretation The COVID-19 infection in Italy emerged with a clustering onset similar to the one described in Wuhan, China and likewise showed worse outcomes in older males with comorbidities. Initial R0 at 2.96 in Lombardia, explains the high case-load and rapid geographical spread observed. Overall Rt in Italian regions is currently decreasing albeit with large diversities across the country, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.
has issue date	2020-04-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.08.20056861
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	b8d97f4fa91c3d970847aec94924658cf39f8450
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056861
resource representing a document's title	Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic
resource representing a document's body	covid:b8d97f4fa91c3d970847aec94924658cf39f8450#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'pathogen' named entity 'Lazio' named entity 'Bozen' named entity 'infection' named entity 'ECDC' named entity 'Italian' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'Lazio' named entity 'physical distancing' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'contact tracing' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'Case fatality rates' named entity 'nasopharyngeal swabs' named entity 'posterior distribution' named entity 'probability mass function' named entity 'comorbidities' named entity 'co-morbidity' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'HCW' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'health care workers'

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