About: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global health and world's economy have been profound and unseen since the Spanish flu of 1918-19. As of now, many countries have been severely affected, partly because of slow responses to the crisis, ill-preparedness of their health system, and the fragile health infrastructure and the shortage of protective equipment. This note evaluates various scenarios, based on an estimation of number of identified and unidentified infected cases, and examines the effectiveness of different policy responses to contain this pandemic. Our result, based on an estimation of the model for Iran, show that in many instances the number of unidentified cases, including asymptomatic individuals, could be much bigger than the reported numbers. The results confirm that in such circumstances, social distancing alone cannot be an effective policy unless a large portion of the population confine themselves for an extended period of time, which is not only difficult to implement, but it could also prove extremely costly and damaging to the economy. An alternative policy, this note argues, is to couple effective social distancing with extensive testing, even to those who are asymptomatic, and isolate the identified cases actively. Otherwise, many lives will be lost, and the health system will collapse, adding to the ongoing economic troubles that many countries have started to encounter.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

An Entity of Type : fabio:Abstract, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

AttributesValues
type
value
  • The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global health and world's economy have been profound and unseen since the Spanish flu of 1918-19. As of now, many countries have been severely affected, partly because of slow responses to the crisis, ill-preparedness of their health system, and the fragile health infrastructure and the shortage of protective equipment. This note evaluates various scenarios, based on an estimation of number of identified and unidentified infected cases, and examines the effectiveness of different policy responses to contain this pandemic. Our result, based on an estimation of the model for Iran, show that in many instances the number of unidentified cases, including asymptomatic individuals, could be much bigger than the reported numbers. The results confirm that in such circumstances, social distancing alone cannot be an effective policy unless a large portion of the population confine themselves for an extended period of time, which is not only difficult to implement, but it could also prove extremely costly and damaging to the economy. An alternative policy, this note argues, is to couple effective social distancing with extensive testing, even to those who are asymptomatic, and isolate the identified cases actively. Otherwise, many lives will be lost, and the health system will collapse, adding to the ongoing economic troubles that many countries have started to encounter.
Subject
  • Protective gear
  • Safety engineering
  • 2019 disasters in China
part of
is abstract of
is hasSource of
Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020


Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE     Content Formats:       RDF       ODATA       Microdata      About   
This material is Open Knowledge   W3C Semantic Web Technology [RDF Data]
OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software