About: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility

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About: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility
Creator	Rambaut, Andrew Riley, Steven Fraser, Christophe Cauchemez, Simon Van Kerkhove, Maria Donnelly, Christl Enouf, Vincent
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: The novel Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) had, as of Aug 8, 2013, caused 111 virologically confirmed or probable human cases of infection worldwide. We analysed epidemiological and genetic data to assess the extent of human infection, the performance of case detection, and the transmission potential of MERS-CoV with and without control measures. METHODS: We assembled a comprehensive database of all confirmed and probable cases from public sources and estimated the incubation period and generation time from case cluster data. Using data of numbers of visitors to the Middle East and their duration of stay, we estimated the number of symptomatic cases in the Middle East. We did independent analyses, looking at the growth in incident clusters, the growth in viral population, the reproduction number of cluster index cases, and cluster sizes to characterise the dynamical properties of the epidemic and the transmission scenario. FINDINGS: The estimated number of symptomatic cases up to Aug 8, 2013, is 940 (95% CI 290–2200), indicating that at least 62% of human symptomatic cases have not been detected. We find that the case-fatality ratio of primary cases detected via routine surveillance (74%; 95% CI 49–91) is biased upwards because of detection bias; the case-fatality ratio of secondary cases was 20% (7–42). Detection of milder cases (or clinical management) seemed to have improved in recent months. Analysis of human clusters indicated that chains of transmission were not self-sustaining when infection control was implemented, but that R in the absence of controls was in the range 0·8–1·3. Three independent data sources provide evidence that R cannot be much above 1, with an upper bound of 1·2–1·5. INTERPRETATION: By showing that a slowly growing epidemic is underway either in human beings or in an animal reservoir, quantification of uncertainty in transmissibility estimates, and provision of the first estimates of the scale of the epidemic and extent of case detection biases, we provide valuable information for more informed risk assessment. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU FP7, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.
has issue date	2014-01-01(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/s1473-3099(13)70304-9
bibo:pmid	24239323
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	c89db3eb32783b08963ccbd3723bd51befedf4f4
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099%2813%2970304-9
resource representing a document's title	Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3895322
has PubMed identifier	24239323
schema:publication	Lancet Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:c89db3eb32783b08963ccbd3723bd51befedf4f4#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'measures' named entity 'caused' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'GENETIC DATA' named entity 'ASSESS' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'EPIDEMIOLOGICAL' named entity 'WORLDWIDE' named entity 'BIASES' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'CATION' named entity 'EXTENT OF' named entity 'CAUSED' named entity 'NOVEL' named entity 'SURVEILLANCE' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'EXTENT OF' named entity 'PROBABLE' named entity 'HUMAN' named entity 'MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'AUG' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'BACKGROUND' named entity 'INFECTION' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'RMED' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'PERFORMANCE' named entity '111' covid:arg/c89db3eb32783b08963ccbd3723bd51befedf4f4 named entity 'data' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus' named entity 'cation' named entity 'index case' named entity 'animal reservoir' named entity 'CAD' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'MERS-CoV' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'animal reservoir' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'epidemiology' named entity 'Qatar' named entity 'index case' named entity 'generation time' named entity 'index case' named entity 'comorbidities' named entity 'Saudi Arabia' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'MERS-CoV' named entity 'human infection' named entity '95%' named entity '95% CI' named entity '95% CI' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'human-to-human' named entity 'lognormal distribution' named entity 'virus' named entity 'animal reservoir' named entity 'molecular clock' named entity 'Middle East' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Paris' named entity 'Middle East' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity 'epidemiological data' named entity 'Italy'

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