About: Modeling the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa

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About: Modeling the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Modeling the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa
Creator	Garba, Salisu Lubuma, M-S Tsanou, Berge
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Since its emergence late in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to exude major public health and socio-economic burden globally. South Africa is currently the epicenter for the pandemic in Africa. This study is based on the use of a compartmental model to analyse the transmission dynamics of the disease in South Africa. A notable feature of the model is the incorporation of the role of environmental contamination by COVID-infected individuals. The model, which is fitted and parametrized using cumulative mortality data from South Africa, is used to assess the impact of various control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model reveals that its associated continuum of disease-free equilibria is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the control reproduction number is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the disease will eventually die out, particularly if control measures are implemented early and for a sustainable period of time. For instance, numerical simulations suggest that if the lockdown measures in South Africa were implemented a week later than the 26 March, 2020 date it was implemented, this will result in the extension of the predicted peak time of the pandemic, and causing about 10% more cumulative deaths. In addition to illustrating the effectiveness of self-isolation in reducing the number of cases, our study emphasizes the importance of surveillance testing and contact tracing of the contacts and confirmed cases in curtailing the pandemic in South Africa.
has issue date	2020-08-04(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108441
bibo:pmid	32763338
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	c9d6539c963b68f8f605afaf5a9cff7df1251f7d
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108441
resource representing a document's title	Modeling the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7402282
has PubMed identifier	32763338
schema:publication	Math Biosci
resource representing a document's body	covid:c9d6539c963b68f8f605afaf5a9cff7df1251f7d#body_text
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