About: Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza
Creator	Fraser, Christophe Ferguson, Neil Cauchemez, Simon Donnelly, Christl Hinsley, Wes Ghani, Azra Truscott, James Meeyai, Aronrag
source	PMC
abstract	Seasonal influenza has considerable impact around the world, both economically and in mortality among risk groups, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the essential mechanisms and their parametrization. In this paper, we identify a number of characteristic features of influenza incidence time series in temperate regions, including ranges of annual attack rates and outbreak durations. By constraining the output of simple models to match these characteristic features, we investigate the role played by population heterogeneity, multiple strains, cross-immunity and the rate of strain evolution in the generation of incidence time series. Results indicate that an age-structured model with non-random mixing and co-circulating strains are both required to match observed time-series data. Our work gives estimates of the seasonal peak basic reproduction number, R(0), in the range 1.6–3. Estimates of R(0) are strongly correlated with the timescale for waning of immunity to current circulating seasonal influenza strain, which we estimate is between 3 and 8 years. Seasonal variation in transmissibility is largely confined to 15–30% of its mean value. While population heterogeneity and cross-immunity are required mechanisms, the degree of heterogeneity and cross-immunity is not tightly constrained. We discuss our findings in the context of other work fitting to seasonal influenza data.
has issue date	2012-02-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1098/rsif.2011.0309
bibo:pmid	21715400
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	d5b9d170e1a489b8a3f04232bd2ae4e105fa1661
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2011.0309
resource representing a document's title	Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3243394
has PubMed identifier	21715400
schema:publication	J R Soc Interface
resource representing a document's body	covid:d5b9d170e1a489b8a3f04232bd2ae4e105fa1661#body_text
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