About: Impact of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the US: A Simulation Modeling Approach

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About: Impact of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the US: A Simulation Modeling Approach Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Impact of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the US: A Simulation Modeling Approach
Creator	Safdar, Nasia Alagoz, Oguzhan Churpek, Matthew Patterson, Brian Sethi, Ajay
Source	MedRxiv; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: Across the U.S., various social distancing measures were implemented to control COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographics and different levels of adherence to social distancing. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of social distancing measures in unique regions. METHODS: We developed COVid-19 Agent-based simulation Model (COVAM), an agent-based simulation model (ABM) that represents the social network and interactions among the people in a region considering population demographics, limited testing availability, imported infections from outside of the region, asymptomatic disease transmission, and adherence to social distancing measures. We adopted COVAM to represent COVID-19-associated events in Dane County, Wisconsin, Milwaukee metropolitan area, and New York City (NYC). We used COVAM to evaluate the impact of three different aspects of social distancing: 1) Adherence to social distancing measures; 2) timing of implementing social distancing; and 3) timing of easing social distancing. RESULTS: We found that the timing of social distancing and adherence level had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence. For example, in NYC, implementing social distancing measures on March 5, 2020 instead of March 12, 2020 would have reduced the total number of confirmed cases from 191,984 to 43,968 as of May 30, whereas a 1-week delay in implementing such measures could have increased the number of confirmed cases to 1,299,420. Easing social distancing measures on June 1, 2020 instead of June 15, 2020 in NYC would increase the total number of confirmed cases from 275,587 to 379,858 as of July 31. CONCLUSION: The timing of implementing social distancing measures, adherence to the measures, and timing of their easing have major effects on the number of COVID-19 cases. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Institute
has issue date	2020-06-09(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.07.20124859
bibo:pmid	32577703
has license	cc-by-nc-nd
sha1sum (hex)	d707ad5021935bdb7102566353ac3c4e319e91ef
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.07.20124859
resource representing a document's title	Impact of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the US: A Simulation Modeling Approach
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7302402
has PubMed identifier	32577703
schema:publication	medRxiv
resource representing a document's body	covid:d707ad5021935bdb7102566353ac3c4e319e91ef#body_text
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