About: When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outbreak is almost certain. We introduce such an outbreak threshold (T(0)), and find that for large and homogeneous host populations, in which the pathogen has a reproductive ratio R(0), on the order of 1/Log(R(0)) infected individuals are needed to prevent stochastic fade-out during the early stages of an epidemic. We also show how this threshold scales with higher heterogeneity and R(0) in the host population. These results have implications for controlling emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

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About: When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outbreak is almost certain. We introduce such an outbreak threshold (T(0)), and find that for large and homogeneous host populations, in which the pathogen has a reproductive ratio R(0), on the order of 1/Log(R(0)) infected individuals are needed to prevent stochastic fade-out during the early stages of an epidemic. We also show how this threshold scales with higher heterogeneity and R(0) in the host population. These results have implications for controlling emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	abstract
value	When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outbreak is almost certain. We introduce such an outbreak threshold (T(0)), and find that for large and homogeneous host populations, in which the pathogen has a reproductive ratio R(0), on the order of 1/Log(R(0)) infected individuals are needed to prevent stochastic fade-out during the early stages of an epidemic. We also show how this threshold scales with higher heterogeneity and R(0) in the host population. These results have implications for controlling emerging and re-emerging pathogens.
subject	Infectious diseases
part of	Introducing the Outbreak Threshold in Epidemiology
is abstract of	Introducing the Outbreak Threshold in Epidemiology
is hasSource of	covid:ann/target/b10d6b89807aeca9303412783905ec950b9c2033 covid:ann/target/7bdf1586a95e3127e107c20e3cab21396b3e53fe covid:ann/target/7b0d7b3d902128d87cd2f153f711045893dc34ae covid:ann/target/3cfeb8d970a4405a99249385050bf96bc2b0c478 covid:ann/target/a03028071aa346cf766c40f2858141a49ab947b5

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