About: Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
Creator	Chatterjee, S Sarkar, A Karmakar, M Paul, R
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	We explore a standard epidemiological model, known as the SIRD model, to study the COVID-19 infection in India, and a few other countries around the world. We use (a) the stable cumulative infection of various countries and (b) the number of infection versus the tests carried out to evaluate the model. The time-dependent infection rate is set in the model to obtain the best fit with the available data. The model is simulated aiming to project the probable features of the infection in India, various Indian states, and other countries. India imposed an early lockdown to contain the infection that can be treated by its healthcare system. We find that with the current infection rate and containment measures, the total active infection in India would be maximum at the end of June or beginning of July 2020. With proper containment measures in the infected zones and social distancing, the infection is expected to fall considerably from August. If the containment measures are relaxed before the arrival of the peak infection, more people from the susceptible population will fall sick as the infection is expected to see a threefold rise at the peak. If the relaxation is given a month after the peak infection, a second peak with a moderate infection will follow. However, a gradual relaxation of the lockdown started well ahead of the peak infection, leads to a nearly twofold increase of the peak infection with no second peak. The model is further extended to incorporate the infection arising from the population showing no symptoms. The preliminary finding suggests that random testing needs to be carried out within the asymptomatic population to contain the spread of the disease. Our model provides a semi-quantitative overview of the progression of COVID-19 in India, with model projections reasonably replicating the current progress. The projection of the model is highly sensitive to the choice of the parameters and the available data. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
has issue date	2020-06-23(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8
bibo:pmid	32837088
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	e0e31f56fc1188841ffe528ab19cce1aa8cd586b
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8
resource representing a document's title	Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7308605
has PubMed identifier	32837088
schema:publication	Indian J Phys Proc Indian Assoc Cultiv Sci (2004)
resource representing a document's body	covid:e0e31f56fc1188841ffe528ab19cce1aa8cd586b#body_text
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