About: The significance of case detection ratios for predictions on the outcome of an epidemic

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About: The significance of case detection ratios for predictions on the outcome of an epidemic - a message from mathematical modelers Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The significance of case detection ratios for predictions on the outcome of an epidemic - a message from mathematical modelers
Creator	Barbarossa, Maria Fuhrmann, Jan
Source	Medline; PMC; WHO
abstract	In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models make assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.
has issue date	2020-07-14(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1186/s13690-020-00445-8
bibo:pmid	32685147
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	e0f602e95706c52d421a6e1875487b059aed9b04
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-020-00445-8
resource representing a document's title	The significance of case detection ratios for predictions on the outcome of an epidemic - a message from mathematical modelers
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7359444
has PubMed identifier	32685147
schema:publication	Arch Public Health
resource representing a document's body	covid:e0f602e95706c52d421a6e1875487b059aed9b04#body_text
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