About: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

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About: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Creator	Yang, Lin Gao, Daozhou He, Daihai Lou, Yijun Ran, Jinjun Wang, Weiming Zhao, Shi Lin, Qianyin Yang, Guangpu Musa, Salihu Wang, Maggie
Source	BioRxiv; MedRxiv
abstract	Backgrounds An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0. Conclusion The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
has issue date	2020-01-29(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
has license	biorxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e8a276c1f98ab1784142d4248b2c043c54a15c05
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
resource representing a document's title	Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
schema:publication	bioRxiv
resource representing a document's body	covid:e8a276c1f98ab1784142d4248b2c043c54a15c05#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER' named entity 'ONGOING' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'basic reproduction number' named entity 'China' named entity 'China' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'ongoing outbreak' named entity 'pneumonia' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'January 24' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'middle east respiratory syndrome' named entity 'parameter estimation' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity 'incubation' named entity 'China' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'dashed' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'January 17' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity '1.96' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'January 17' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'China' named entity 'Laplace transform' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'January 26' named entity 'exponential growth' named entity 'National Health Commission of China' named entity 'moment generating function' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'pathogen' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'Japan' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'SARS' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'severe acute respiratory syndrome' named entity 'disease transmission' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'January 17' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'January 17' named entity 'January 16' named entity 'MERS' named entity 'SARS' named entity 'Table Table' named entity 'probability distribution' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'serial interval' named entity '2019-nCoV' named entity 'R-squared' named entity '8 days'

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