About: A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation

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About: A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation
Creator	Prakash, Meher Ansumali, Santosh
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	When actively taking measures to control an epidemic, an important indicator of success is crossing the %22peak%22 of daily new infections. The peak is a positive sign which marks the end of the exponential phase of infection spread and a transition into a phase that is a manageable. Most countries or provinces with similar but independent growth trajectories had taken drastic measures for containing the COVID-19 pandemic and are eagerly waiting to cross the peak. However, the data after many weeks of strict measures suggests that most provinces instead enter a phase where the infections are in a linear growth. While the transition out of an exponential phase is relieving, the roughly constant number of daily new infections differ widely, range from around 50 in Singapore to around 2000 just in Lombardy (Italy), and 7600 in Spain. The daily new infection rate of a region seems to depend heavily on the time point in the exponential evolution when the restrictive measures were adopted, rather than on the population of the region. It is not easy to point the critical source of these persistent infections. We attempt to interpret this data using a simple model of newer infections mediated by asymptomatic patients, which underscores the importance of actively identifying any potential leakages in the quarantine. Given the novelty of the virus, it is hard to predict too far into the future and one needs to be observant to see if a plan B is needed as a second round of interventions. So far, the peak achieved by most countries with the first round of intervention is extremely flat.
has issue date	2020-04-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.07.20055772
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	f1471af6b89bb672a6bcec77242e857cdc337f5d
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.07.20055772
resource representing a document's title	A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation
resource representing a document's body	covid:f1471af6b89bb672a6bcec77242e857cdc337f5d#body_text
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