About: Forecasting the Impact of Coronavirus Disease During Delivery Hospitalization: An Aid for Resources Utilization

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Forecasting the Impact of Coronavirus Disease During Delivery Hospitalization: An Aid for Resources Utilization
Creator	Brackney, David Brackney, Kerri Hackney, Hackney, Ms Kesavan, Kesavan, Kerri Kimberlyn, M Kimberlyn, Ms Putra, Manesha Roosa, Roosa, M
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC; WHO
abstract	Abstract Background The ongoing Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has severely impacted the United States. In cases of infectious disease outbreak, forecasting models are often developed for resources utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that the majority of American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting. Objectives The aim of our study is to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in general population and to forecast the overall incidence, severe cases, critical cases and fatal COVID-19 cases during delivery hospitalization in the United States. Study design We use a phenomenological model with generalized logistic growth models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in the United States from 4/15/2020 – 12/31/2020. Incidence data from 3/1/2020 – 4/14/2020 were used to provide best-fit model solution. Subsequently, Monte-Carlo simulation was performed for each week from 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020 to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in delivery hospitalizations using the available data estimate. Results From 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020, our model forecasted a total of 860,475 cases of COVID-19 in general population across the United States. The cumulative incidence for COVID-19 during delivery hospitalization is anticipated to be 16,601 (95% CI, 9,711 – 23,491) cases. Among those, 3,308 (95% CI, 1,755 – 4,861) cases are expected to be severe, 681 (95% CI, 1324 – 1,038) critical and 52 (95% CI, 23 – 81) maternal mortality. Assuming similar baseline maternal mortality rate as the year of 2018, we projected an increase in maternal mortality rate in the US to at least 18.7 (95% CI, 18.0 – 19.5) deaths per 100,000 live birth as a direct result of COVID-19. Conclusions COVID-19 infection in pregnant women is expected to severely impact obstetrical care. From 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020, we project 3,308 severe and 681 critical cases, with about 52 COVID-19 related maternal mortalities during delivery hospitalization in the United States. These data might be helpful for counseling and resource allocation.
has issue date	2020-04-25(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ajogmf.2020.100127
bibo:pmid	32342041
has license	els-covid
sha1sum (hex)	f1513d58604bdec23053473983d58134eeb02d02
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajogmf.2020.100127
resource representing a document's title	Forecasting the Impact of Coronavirus Disease During Delivery Hospitalization: An Aid for Resources Utilization
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7182514
has PubMed identifier	32342041
schema:publication	Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM
resource representing a document's body	covid:f1513d58604bdec23053473983d58134eeb02d02#body_text
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