About: The main objective of the present paper is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to April 1, 2020. Countries selected for analysis were China, Italy, Spain, Iran, and Brazil. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of Italy, Spain, and Iran, which supposedly are in the middle of the outbreak at the time of this writing. As for Brazil, which is still in the so-called exponential growth regime, we used the generalized growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • The main objective of the present paper is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to April 1, 2020. Countries selected for analysis were China, Italy, Spain, Iran, and Brazil. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of Italy, Spain, and Iran, which supposedly are in the middle of the outbreak at the time of this writing. As for Brazil, which is still in the so-called exponential growth regime, we used the generalized growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.
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  • Zoonoses
  • Viral respiratory tract infections
  • Mathematical modeling
  • COVID-19
  • Applied mathematics
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