About: Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)

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About: Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
Creator	Nishiura, Hiroshi Hayashi, Katsuma Jung, Sung-Mok Kinoshita, Ryo Kobayashi, Tetsuro Miyama, Takeshi Suzuki, Ayako Yang, Yichi Anzai, Asami Akhmetzhanov, Andrei Linton, Natalie
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86, 449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.
has issue date	2020-02-17(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	f4d76fb8161f4cee6987d7d412798e1276348858
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897
resource representing a document's title	Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
resource representing a document's body	covid:f4d76fb8161f4cee6987d7d412798e1276348858#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'January' named entity 'economic' named entity 'volume' named entity 'INCIDENCE' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'JAPAN' named entity 'PREDICTED' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'DYNAMICS' named entity 'REDUCTION' named entity 'TRAVEL' named entity 'ECONOMIC' named entity 'NOVEL CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'RESPECT' named entity 'LESS THAN' named entity 'TO CONTROL' named entity 'USING' named entity 'MAINLAND CHINA' named entity 'CONFIRMED' named entity 'NUMBER OF' named entity 'A MAJOR' named entity 'ASSESSING' named entity 'ANALYZED' named entity 'REDUCED' named entity 'CORONAVIRUS INFECTION' named entity 'MOVEMENT' named entity '226' named entity 'PROBABILITY OF' named entity 'MAY BE' named entity 'EPIDEMIOLOGICAL' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'ESTIMATED' named entity 'EXPORTED' named entity 'FREEDOM' named entity 'SMALL' named entity 'DECISION' named entity 'BALANCED' named entity 'REDUCED' named entity 'OUTSIDE' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'FEBRUARY' named entity 'ESTIMATE' named entity 'DELAY' named entity 'MEDIAN' named entity 'ONE DAY' named entity 'JANUARY' named entity 'DAYS' named entity 'TIME DELAY' named entity 'RESULTING' named entity 'VOLUME' named entity 'CONFIDENCE INTERVAL' named entity '28I' named entity 'STATISTICAL MODELS' named entity 'INFECTIONS' named entity 'OUTCOME MEASURES' named entity 'REPORTS' named entity 'COMPARED' named entity 'NOVEL CORONAVIRUS' named entity 'DIAGNOSED' named entity 'SCENARIO' named entity 'TRAVEL' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'DATA' named entity '20%' covid:arg/f4d76fb8161f4cee6987d7d412798e1276348858 named entity 'February' named entity 'border control' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'Europe' named entity 'China' named entity 'Japan' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'probability'

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