About: Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
Creator	Bertuzzo, Enrico Carraro, Luca Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Rinaldo, Andrea
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about [Formula: see text] individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
has issue date	2020-05-12(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1073/pnas.2004978117
bibo:pmid	32327608
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	f57715443bc7a6c8455d3c80b8434cd94f501ff0
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004978117
resource representing a document's title	Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7229754
has PubMed identifier	32327608
schema:publication	Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
resource representing a document's body	covid:f57715443bc7a6c8455d3c80b8434cd94f501ff0#body_text
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