About: Performance of progressive and adaptive COVID-19 exit strategies: a stress test analysis for managing intensive care unit rates

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About: Performance of progressive and adaptive COVID-19 exit strategies: a stress test analysis for managing intensive care unit rates Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : wasabi.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Performance of progressive and adaptive COVID-19 exit strategies: a stress test analysis for managing intensive care unit rates
Creator	Brunner, Logan Hanegraaf, Maurice Leeuwenburgh, Olwijn Osinga, Sander Pluymaekers, Maarten Tanck, Michael Tutu Van Furth, Marceline Van Bijsterveldt, Lonneke Van Der Kuip, Martijn Van Wees, Jan-Diederik Van Westerloo, David Verreijdt, Pien
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: In May 2020, many European countries have begun to introduce an exit strategy for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic which involves relaxing social distancing measures. Predictive epidemiological modeling indicates that chances for resurgence are high. However, parametrization of the epidemiological nature of COVID-19 and the effect of relaxing social distancing is not well constrained, resulting in highly uncertain outcomes in view of managing future intensive care unit (ICU) needs. Methods and findings: For performance analysis of exit strategies we developed an open-source ensemble-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. It takes into account uncertainties for the COVID-19 parametrization and social distancing measures. The model is calibrated to data of the outbreak and lockdown phase. For the exit phase, the model includes the capability to activate an emergency brake, reinstating lockdown conditions. Alternatively, the model uses an adaptive COVID-19 cruise control (ACCC) capable to retain a targeted ICU level. The model is demonstrated for the Netherlands and we analyzed progressive and adaptive exit strategies through a stress test of managing ICU rates. The progressive strategy reflects the outcome of social and economic pressure to use one-way steering toward progressively relaxing measures at an early stage. It is marked by a high probability for the activation of the emergency brake due to an unsolicited growth of ICU needs in the following months. Alternatively, the two-way steering ACCC can flatten ICU needs in a more gradual way and avoids activation of the emergency brake. It also performs well for seasonal variation in the reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus. Conclusions: The adaptive strategy (ACCC) is favored, as it avoids the use of the emergency brake at the expense of small steps of restrictive measures and allows the exploration of riskier and potentially rewarding measures in the future pathways of the exit strategy.
has issue date	2020-05-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.16.20102947
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	fafc36b3b9b500f105a0deb9a964434e0a45f2a2
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20102947
resource representing a document's title	Performance of progressive and adaptive COVID-19 exit strategies: a stress test analysis for managing intensive care unit rates
resource representing a document's body	covid:fafc36b3b9b500f105a0deb9a964434e0a45f2a2#body_text
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