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fabio:Abstract

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We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression $SEIR$ framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an $SI$ framework. The proposed model describes the evolution of a class of zoonotic infections where the pathogen is shared by $m$ host species and transmitted by $p$ arthropod vector species. In each host, the infectious period is structured into $n$ stages with a corresponding infectiousness parameter to each vector species. We determine the basic reproduction number $/mathcal{R}_0^2(m,n,p)$ and investigate the dynamics of the systems when this threshold is less or greater than one. We show that the dynamics of the multi-host, multi-stage, and multi-vector system is completely determined by the basic reproduction number and the structure of the host-vector network configuration. Particularly, we prove that the disease-free /mbox{equilibrium} is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever $/mathcal{R}_0^2(m,n,p)<1$, and a unique strongly endemic equilibrium exists and is GAS if $/mathcal{R}_0^2(m,n,p)>1$ and the host-vector configuration is irreducible. That is, either the disease dies out or persists in all hosts and all vector species.

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Parasitology Pandemics Therapy Reproduction Epidemiology

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covid:ae4fad62aa21a62cecb8da0f59ddddeb56b3f137