About: Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model

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About: Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model
Creator	Chakrabarti, Partha Sarkar, Jit Basheer, Salah Ghosh, Pramit Paul, Sandip
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Objective: In absence of any vaccine, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being contained through a non-pharmaceutical measure termed Social Distancing (SD). However, whether SD alone is enough to flatten the epidemic curve is debatable. Using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model, we investigated the impact of increasing SD, hospital beds and COVID-19 detection rates in preventing COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Research Design and Methods: The Stochastic Simulation Model was built using the EpiModel package in R. As a proof of concept study, we ran the simulation on Kasaragod, the most affected district in Kerala. We added 3 compartments to the SEIR model to obtain a SEIQHRF (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Hospitalised-Recovered-Fatal) model. Results: Implementing SD only delayed the appearance of peak prevalence of COVID-19 cases. Doubling of hospital beds could not reduce the fatal cases probably due to its overwhelming number compared to the hospital beds. Increasing detection rates could significantly flatten the curve and reduce the peak prevalence of cases (increasing detection rate by 5 times could reduce case number to half). Conclusions: An effective strategy to contain the epidemic spread of COVID-19 in India is to increase detection rates in combination with SD measures and increase in hospital beds.
has issue date	2020-04-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a5cdc10ddf08b16f4e3363504118803f37a5b683
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775
resource representing a document's title	Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model
resource representing a document's body	covid:a5cdc10ddf08b16f4e3363504118803f37a5b683#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'USING' named entity 'Stochastic' named entity 'REDUCE' named entity 'DETECTION' named entity 'INCREASED' named entity 'PLANNING' named entity 'FATALITIES' named entity 'STOCHASTIC' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'CAPACITY' named entity 'SIMULATION MODEL' named entity 'COUPLED' named entity 'BURDEN' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'PROOF OF CONCEPT STUDY' named entity 'COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION' named entity 'HEALTH' named entity 'Health' named entity 'Model' named entity 'vaccine' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Kerala' named entity 'respiratory failure' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'multi-organ failure' named entity 'trial & error' named entity 'sensitive and specific' named entity 'India' named entity 'anxiety' named entity 'epidemics' named entity 'India' named entity 'lock-down' named entity 'doi' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'spread of COVID-19' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Quarantined' named entity '21 days' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'doi' named entity 'Kasargod' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'proof of concept' named entity '21 days' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'India' named entity 'epidemics' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Quarantined' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'infection' named entity '5.2' named entity 'India' named entity 'India' named entity 'Social Distancing' named entity 'Social distancing' named entity 'Social distancing' named entity 'septic shock' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'corona virus' named entity 'Coronavirus Disease 2019' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'India' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'probability' named entity 'preprint' named entity '21 days' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'India' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'preprint'

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