About: Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
Creator	Pfeiffer, Dirk Yuan, Hsiang-Yu Han, Guiyuan Mao, Axiu Yuan, Hsiangkuo
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic. Although quarantine measures have been used widely, the critical steps among them to suppress the outbreak without a huge social-economic loss remain unknown. Hong Kong, unlike other regions in the world, had a massive number of travellers from Mainland China during the early expansion period, and yet the spread of virus has been relatively limited. Understanding the effect of control measures to reduce the transmission in Hong Kong can improve the control of the virus spreading. We have developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) meta-population model that can stratify the infections into imported and subsequent local infections, and therefore to obtain the control effects on transmissibility in a region with many imported cases. We fitted the model to both imported and local confirmed cases with symptom onset from 18 January to 29 February 2020 in Hong Kong with daily transportation data and the transmission dynamics from Wuhan and Mainland China. The model estimated that the reproductive number was dropped from 2.32 to 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86) after an infected case was estimated to be quarantined half day before the symptom onset, corresponding to the incubation time of 5.43 days (95% CI, 1.30-9.47). If the quarantine happened about one day after the onset, community spread would be likely to occur, indicated by the reproductive number larger than one. The results suggest that the early quarantine for a suspected case before the symptom onset is a key factor to suppress COVID-19.
has issue date	2020-04-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.09.20059006
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	e5c3358b3235f360e8de5ace8908040480d29822
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059006
resource representing a document's title	Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
resource representing a document's body	covid:e5c3358b3235f360e8de5ace8908040480d29822#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'pandemic' named entity 'Understanding' named entity 'measure' named entity 'Effectiveness' named entity 'EFFECT' named entity 'NUMBER OF' named entity 'STEPS' named entity 'SPREADING' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'UNDERSTANDING' named entity 'QUARANTINE' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'critical' named entity 'travellers' named entity 'improve' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'virus' named entity 'economic loss' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'local transmission' named entity 'doi' named entity 'Mainland China' named entity 'Posterior distributions' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'generation time' named entity 'CC-BY-ND' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'CC-BY-ND' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'infection' named entity 'community spread' named entity 'CC-BY-ND' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'standard deviation' named entity 'public health policies' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'population model' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Mainland China' named entity 'population model' named entity 'Mainland China' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'CC-BY-ND' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'China' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'doi' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'unquarantined' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'CC-BY-ND' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'Wuhan'

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