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About: Invasive pneumococcal pneumonia is associated with high rates of mortality. Clinical assessment tools have poor sensitivity for predicting clinical outcomes. Molecular measurements of bacterial load correlate closely with clinical outcome but require specialist facilities and expertise. This study describes how routine blood culture testing can estimate bacterial load and predict clinical outcome for invasive pneumococcal pneumonia. Between December 2009 to March 2014, clinical and laboratory data were collected for 50 patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteraemia secondary to community-acquired pneumonia. Fluorescence rates (FR) were calculated from growth curves generated by BACTEC blood culture analysers by dividing change in fluorescence units (FU), measured at the first point of detectable fluorescence and at the point of automated BACTEC positivity, by time in hours. The mean age of the patients was 70.6 years (49.6–86.3). Forty patients survived invasive pneumococcal disease and ten patients died. These two groups did not significantly differ by demographic or clinical characteristics. The mean FR for the non-survival group (3.62 × 10(−3) FU/h) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) than that of the survival group (1.73 × 10(−3) FU/h). FR did not vary by serotype. We determined that an FR of 2.59 × 10(−3) FU/h might represent a useful threshold for predicting high mortality risk with a sensitivity of 91 % and a specificity of 97 %. Our FR calculation uses cheap and accessible routine blood culture techniques to predict mortality in a small retrospective cohort study. In patients admitted to hospital with pneumococcal bacteraemia and, potentially, other organisms, this single tool could guide early escalation of clinical care.

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